Australian Crop Update – Week 32, 2025

It was a relatively quiet week locally with most participants at the Australian Grain Industry Conference in Melbourne. That said, it was a softer finish to the week with global markets trending bearish and a 1.2% fall in the Australian dollar as the USD responded to the latest trump tariff news. 
 
Recent rainfall has boosted grower confidence, prompting more farmer selling in New South Wales (NSW) and parts of Victoria (VIC). Jan ’26 APW 10.5 wheat was indicated around USD 253 FOB East Coast. The AGIC conference in Melbourne had a bearish tone, reflecting recent widespread rain, strong global supply, and subdued export demand. Exporters remain cautious about shorting cashed-up growers ahead of harvest and although old crop and new crop farmer selling has increased it is still subdued. However, the headline is crop outlooks are improving significantly and many traders now expect Australia to match or exceed last year's wheat production and talk of 34 million metric tonne (MMT) new crop is now being openly discussed.

Australia’s chickpea, faba bean, and lentil crops have all established in conditions that vary from good to ideal in the northern regions to average in the south. That said, recent rain across most regions has opened up the prospect of better crops in the south and market participants at the recent AGIC conference suggested we were likely to see crops of a similar size this year although quality, yields and timing, particularly of the southern Fiesta crop, are still up for debate. 
 
On the demand side, Egypt’s demand for bulk and containerised faba beans has fallen away on ample stocks.

Southern growers are yet to start selling new crop, with production prospects still uncertain in many parts of VIC and South Australia (SA). A few growers in NSW and Queensland (QLD) have forward sold small amounts of faba beans, but have generally prioritised forward selling of chickpeas, which occupy a much bigger northern area than beans.

About 235 thousand metric tonne (KMT) of wheat, 100KMT of sorghum, and 30KMT each of barley and canola were added to the export stem last week. NSW added just over 100KMT of wheat, Western Australia (WA) just under 100KMT, and VIC (Melbourne) 30KMT. QLD added a further 100KMT of sorghum, mostly from Central QLD, with 15KMT via GNC Newcastle.

Last week, the Australian dollar (AUD) broadly underperformed against major currencies, finishing the week lower. AUD/USD fell sharply, pressured by renewed expectations of interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) following softer-than-expected labour data and a rise in unemployment. At the same time, the US dollar gained strength ahead of a key Federal Reserve policy meeting, further weighing on the AUD which closed at .6463 on Friday.