Australian Crop Update – Week 18, 2025
2024-25 New Season - USD FOB Indications
NEW CROP PRICES ARE BASED ON TRACK BID/OFFER SPREAD PLUS ACCUMULATION & FOBBING COSTS AND ARE NOT FOB PRICE INDICATIONS.
New Crop - CFR Container Indications PMT
Please note that we are still able to support you with container quotes. However, with the current Red Sea situation, container lines are changing prices often and in some cases, not quoting. Similarly with Ocean Freight we are still working through the ramifications of recent developments on flows within the region – please bear with us.
Please contact Steven Foote on steven@basiscommodities.com for specific quotes that we can work on a spot basis with the supporting container freight.
Australian Grains Market Update
Domestic markets were predictably quiet over the past week with many participants away for the Easter and ANZAC weekends. Wheat prices were softer in all port zones on the back of limited participation and the softer global inputs.
Global buyers are paying close attention to the market inverse that exists across the wheat markets with cheaper new crop values beginning to be seen in the market. Favourable global weather is also comforting the market about new crop supplies.
Export Stem & Ocean Freight Market Update:
The shipping stem shows that the wheat shipping pace will improve in March, April and May as exporters came to grips with the downturn in China’s import demand and sharpened their pencils into other destinations. More than 0.5 million metric tonne (MMT) of wheat was added to the shipping stem in a truncated week by Easter and ANZAC day. Western Australia (WA) accounted for most of the wheat additions in the past week with South Australia (SA) and Victoria (VIC) also adding cargoes.
Rates gained ground across the week as the positivity from the Atlantic basin flowed through to the Pacific which gained momentum as the week progressed. The Supra/Ultra market was a mixed affair as the Atlantic struggled to follow the Panamax trend while in the Pacific ships were being fixed at better than last done levels on all routes. The notable standout was the large premiums charterers had to pay for India direction given the upcoming monsoon season. The Handysize sector was quiet in both basins with rates trending sideways all week as activity levels were sluggish after the holidays.
The markets appear to be well balanced for the short to medium term with the forward curve values being relatively flat for the remainder for the year.
Australian Weather:
The major weather models focused the rain event across New South Wales (NSW) and VIC, with some isolated heavier storms and then a secondary rain benefiting cropping regions. Although rain was received the rainfall event does little to ease to ongoing tightness in the southern grain markets where the spreads between feed grains and higher protein wheat grades continues to narrow in expectation of ongoing drought conditions. SA and VIC farmers have already started dry planting, but they will head into May waiting for soaking rains.
Famers in Southern NSW will also be disappointed with the weekend rain. Rainfall totals improved in the Central West, and this extended into the northern cropping areas of NSW. While rain in Southern NSW was disappointing, good falls in the northern half of the state have consolidated soaking rains in early April making for an ideal start to the season in Northern NSW and Queensland (QLD).
WA is also enjoying a positive start to the growing season.
8 day forecast to 6 May 2025
http://www.bom.gov.au/
Weekly rainfall to 28 April 2025
http://www.bom.gov.au/
AUD/USD Currency Update:
The Australian dollar softened slightly to close last week when valued against the USD trading at 0.6392. The outlook of the Aussie dollar remains uncertain until both China and the US reduces additional tariffs imposed recently.
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