Australian Crop Update – Week 35, 2025

It’s been a quiet week across Australia’s domestic grain markets which has seen traders focusing on weather and old crop execution. Wet weather in the north helped to support old crop values where the rain has slowed farmer deliveries into domestic feedlots. New crop wheat markets remain thin with little if any grower engagement. Sorghum in the north was softer last week. The bulk sorghum shipping program is seen as largely finished with the last of the vessels now appearing on the stem. Container shipments are moving however the bids to farmers were lower as the bulk buyers step away from the markets. We weather in the north also has farmers preparing for another big sorghum planting which will commence as soon as the paddocks are dry enough from the recent rains.
 
Sentiment is changing in Southeast Australia where the wheat bids are climbing as buyers try to find sellers to shore up late season old crop supplies as well as new crop coverage. The recent dip in the AUD as well as the broader market sensing that global wheat values may be at seasonal lows has seen a step-up in exporters buying, albeit at unpalatable prices for the farmer. However, dry weather worries across Southeast Australia are also increasing. Farmers in the southwestern New South Wales (NSW), parts of Victoria (VIC) and South Australia (SA) need rain soon or yields will fall. The sentiment is widespread and its impacting buyer behaviour.

Shipping stem activity remains quiet. There was 323 thousand metric tonne (KMT) of wheat put onto the stem in the past week split between Western Australia (WA) and VIC with SA and Queensland (QLD) also chipping in. A further 90KMT of sorghum was added to the stem. This included a further 30KMT into GNC Newcastle and 60KMT into QBT Brisbane which was back in July with the belated stem updates. The bulk sorghum shipping program is largely done, according to the trade, with the container activity from the Downs continuing for longer. Only small volumes of barley and canola were added.

Last week, the Australian dollar saw a noticeable decline against the US dollar, dropping by around 1.2% as global currency markets reacted to shifting economic signals. The AUD started the week trading near US $0.654 but steadily lost ground, reaching a two-month low of approximately US $0.641 by midweek. This weakness was primarily driven by renewed strength in the US dollar, which benefited from investors scaling back expectations of a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Although the Australian dollar staged a modest rebound later in the week, closing near US \$0.649, it remained under pressure amid broader risk-off sentiment.